Pages

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Amgen Appendices

Cost of Equity (Ke = Rf + B*MRP)

7.11%

Risk Free Rate (Rf - 10-Yr Teasury)

2.91%

Market Risk Premium (MRP)

7.00%

Beta (B - from Valueline)

0.6

Cost of Debt (Kd = YTM*(1-TR))

4.66%

Tax Rate (TR)

20%

Yield for 'A' rated bond (YTM - from Yahoo as of 4/6/09)

5.83%

Market value of Equity (E = p*nbr)

49,829,900,000

Share Price (p - as of 4/3/09)

46.57

Shares Outstanding (nbr - from Yahoo)

1,070,000,000

Market Value of Debt (D - assumed same as book value)

10,176,000,000

WACC (D*(Kd/Kd+Ke) + E*(Ke/Kd+Ke))

6.70%

 

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Assumptions:

     

Revenue growth (%)

0.0%

3.0%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

EBIT Margin (%)

33.0%

33.0%

33.0%

33.0%

33.0%

NOA/Sales (%)

140.0%

140.0%

140.0%

140.0%

140.0%

Tax rate (%)

20.0%

20.0%

20.0%

20.0%

20.0%

Cost of capital (%) - (R)

6.70%

6.70%

6.70%

6.70%

6.70%

Terminal value growth rate (%) - (g)

3.0%

    

All numbers in Millions except per share data

     

Revenue

15,003.00

15,453.09

16,225.74

17,037.03

17,888.88

EBIT

4,950.99

5,099.52

5,354.50

5,622.22

5,903.33

TAX

990.20

1,019.90

1,070.90

1,124.44

1,180.67

NOPAT

3,960.79

4,079.62

4,283.60

4,497.78

4,722.67

NOA

21,004.20

21,634.33

22,716.04

23,851.84

25,044.44

Change in NOA (year 1 - year 2)

630.13

1,081.72

1,135.80

1,192.59

1,252.22

FCFF (NOPAT - Change in NOA)

3,330.67

2,997.90

3,147.79

3,305.18

3,470.44

Terminal Value (FCFF*(1+g)/(R-g))

     

Discount rate

1.0670

1.1384

1.2146

1.2959

1.3827

PV of Flows

3,121.66

2,633.46

2,591.62

2,550.45

2,509.92

Enterprise Value

94,966.41

    

Net Debt + Preferred Stock + Minority Interest

8,402

    

Equity Value

86,564.41

    

Outstanding Share

1,030

    

Equity per share

84.04

    

 

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

     

Terminal

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

5.0%

3.0%

33.0%

33.0%

33.0%

33.0%

33.0%

33.0%

140.0%

140.0%

140.0%

140.0%

140.0%

140.0%

20.0%

20.0%

20.0%

20.0%

20.0%

20.0%

6.70%

6.70%

6.70%

6.70%

6.70%

6.70%

18,783.33

19,722.49

20,708.62

21,744.05

22,831.25

23,516.19

6,198.50

6,508.42

6,833.84

7,175.54

7,534.31

7,760.34

1,239.70

1,301.68

1,366.77

1,435.11

1,506.86

1,552.07

4,958.80

5,206.74

5,467.08

5,740.43

6,027.45

6,208.27

26,296.66

27,611.49

28,992.07

30,441.67

31,963.75

32,922.67

1,314.83

1,380.57

1,449.60

1,522.08

958.91

 

3,643.97

3,826.16

4,017.47

4,218.35

5,068.54

 
     

141,280.45

1.4753

1.5740

1.6794

1.7919

1.9118

2.0398

2,470.05

2,430.80

2,392.18

2,354.17

2,651.15

69,260.94

 

AMGN

BIIB

GENZ

GILD

JNJ

NVS

LIFE

EBIT/Sales

37.10%

13.72%

28.42%

51.68%

27.52%

22.89%

17.93%

EBITDA/Sales

44.25%

21.86%

39.70%

53.60%

31.97%

29.37%

28.88%

NI/Sales

27.97%

9.17%

19.38%

37.84%

20.53%

19.17%

2.97%

ROIC

14.58%

6.15%

12.55%

50.23%

30.02%

14.64%

0.73%

ROE

20.58%

5.78%

13.67%

48.62%

30.79%

16.18%

1.41%

5 yr Sales Growth

22.50%

36.50%

18.50%

54.00%

11.00%

15.00%

No Data

5 yr EPS Growth

20.50%

12.00%

14.50%

96.00%

14.50%

10.00%

No Data

5 yr Projected EPS

9.50%

25.50%

21.00%

17.50%

7.50%

8.50%

No Data

Debt/Capital

16.96%

0.86%

7.31%

3.01%

7.58%

7.99%

39.20%

Debt/Equity

20.42%

0.87%

7.89%

3.10%

8.20%

8.69%

64.48%

Debt/EBITDA

126.56%

-43.73%

32.01%

-4.63%

5.32%

42.58%

683.85%

 

TEVA


 

22.80%


 

27.24%


 

16.48%


 

7.98%


 

11.21%


 

20.50%


 

32.00%


 

12.00%


 

17.63%


 

21.40%


 

218.18%

   

AMGN

GENZ

BIIB

GILD

Balance Sheet Data

    

(1)Net Interest bearing debt

8,402,000

(440,199)

520,704

(132,355)

(2)

Equity

20,386,000

7,305,993

5,806,083

4,152,487

(3)

Book value of invested capital (1 + 2)

28,788,000

6,865,794

6,326,787

4,020,132

Comparative Income Statements – 2008

    

(4)

Sales

15,003,000

4,605,039

4,097,507

5,335,750

(5)

Cost of sales

2,296,000

1,148,562

401,989

1,127,246

(6)

Gross margin

12,707,000

3,456,477

3,695,518

4,208,504

(7)

Expenses (SG&A, R&D, Other)

6,068,000

2,449,821

2,068,758

1,348,680

(8)

EBITDA

6,639,000

1,006,656

1,626,760

2,859,824

(9)

Depreciation

1,073,000

374,664

462,059

102,467

(10)

EBIT + Non Recurring Expense

5,566,000

631,992

1,164,701

2,757,357

(11)

Interest

316,000

4,418

-

12,101

(12)

Earnings before tax

5,250,000

627,574

1,164,701

2,745,256

(13)

Taxes

1,054,000

205,122

370,793

726,121

(14) Net income

4,196,000

422,452

793,908

2,019,135

(15)

Market value per share

46.57

56.04

50.32

46.98

(16)

Shares outstanding

1,070,000

271,350

288,000

910,000

(17)

Market value equity (15 x 16)

49,829,900

15,206,454

14,492,160

42,751,800

(18)

Market value net debt

8,402,000

(440,199)

520,704

(132,355)

(19)

EV

58,231,900

14,766,255

15,012,864

42,812,455

    

Comparable

JNJ

NVS

LIFE

TEVA

 
    

GENZ

1,084,000

5,326,000

3,200,400

6,589,000

BIIB

42,511,000

50,437,000

3,400,467

16,300,000

GILD

43,595,000

55,763,000

6,600,867

22,889,000

Mean

    

Median

    

Min Range

63,747,000

42,584,000

1,620,323

11,085,000

Max Range

18,511,000

11,439,000

679,571

5,117,000

 

45,236,000

31,145,000

940,752

5,968,000

AMGN

24,859,000

18,637,000

472,752

2,948,000

Min

20,377,000

12,508,000

468,000

3,020,000

Max

2,832,000

2,760,000

177,413

493,000

 

17,545,000

9,748,000

290,587

2,527,000

Equity Value

435,000

249,000

43,039

174,000

Min

17,110,000

9,499,000

247,548

2,353,000

Max

4,022,553

1,336,000

199,467

526,366

 

13,087,447

8,163,000

48,081

1,826,634

 
    

Per Share

52.15

37.51

32.56

44.4

Min

2,770,000

2,260,000

173,800

888,720

Max

144,455,500

84,772,600

5,658,928

39,459,168

 

1,084,000

5,326,000

3,200,400

6,589,000

 

145,539,500

90,098,600

8,859,328

46,108,168

 

 

Price/BV (L17/L2)

Price/Earnings

EV/Sales (L19/L4)

EV/EBIT (L19/L10)

EV/EBITDA (L19/L8)

 

(L17/L14)

   

2.08

36.00

3.21

23.36

14.67

2.50

18.25

3.66

12.89

9.23

10.30

21.17

8.02

15.53

14.97

4.96

25.14

4.96

17.26

12.96

2.50

21.17

3.66

15.53

14.67

2.08

18.25

3.21

12.89

9.23

10.30

36.00

8.02

23.36

14.97

42,430,751.20

76,594,618.15

48,107,762.77

71,745,109.71

61,269,273.95

209,883,425.23

151,038,109.45

120,379,564.70

130,047,493.21

99,387,895.46

42,430,751.20

76,594,618.15

39,705,762.77

63,343,109.71

52,867,273.95

209,883,425.23

151,038,109.45

111,977,564.70

121,645,493.21

90,985,895.46

39.65

71.58

37.11

59.20

49.41

196.15

141.16

104.65

113.69

85.03

 

PERIOD ENDING - 12/31/08

AMGN

GENZ

BIIB

GILD

Total Revenue

15,003,000

4,605,039

4,097,507

5,335,750

Cost of Revenue

2,296,000

1,148,562

401,989

1,127,246

Gross Profit

12,707,000

3,456,477

3,695,518

4,208,504

Operating Expenses

    

Research Development

3,030,000

1,308,330

1,072,058

721,768

Selling General and Administrative

4,169,000

1,338,190

925,305

797,344

Non Recurring

0

2,036

15,758

10,851

Others

294,000

226,442

468,786

0

Total Operating Expenses

0

2,874,998

2,481,907

0

Operating Income or Loss

5,214,000

581,479

1,213,611

2,678,541

Income from Continuing Operations

    

Total Other Income/Expenses Net

352,000

46,059

(64,668)

59,401

Earnings Before Interest And Taxes

5,566,000

629,956

1,148,943

2,746,506

Interest Expense

316,000

4,418

0

12,101

Income Before Tax

5,250,000

625,538

1,148,943

2,734,405

Income Tax Expense

1,054,000

204,457

365,776

723,251

Tax Rate

20.08%

32.68%

31.84%

26.45%

Minority Interest

0

2,217

0

8,564

Net Income From Continuing Ops

4,196,000

421,081

783,167

2,011,154

Non-recurring Events

    

Discontinued Operations

0

0

0

0

Extraordinary Items

0

0

0

0

Effect Of Accounting Changes

0

0

0

0

Other Items

0

0

0

0

Net Income

4,196,000

421,081

783,167

2,011,154

Preferred Stock And Other Adjustments

0

0

0

0

Net Income Applicable To Common Shares

$4,196,000

$421,081

$783,167

$2,011,154

 

JNJ

NVS

LIFE

TEVA

63,747,000

42,584,000

1,620,323

11,085,000

18,511,000

11,439,000

679,571

5,117,000

45,236,000

31,145,000

940,752

5,968,000

7,577,000

7,217,000

142,505

786,000

21,490,000

14,964,000

537,959

2,511,000

181,000

0

93,287

1,526,000

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

15,988,000

8,964,000

167,001

1,145,000

1,376,000

784,000

30,299

-144,000

17,364,000

9,748,000

197,300

1,001,000

435,000

249,000

43,039

174,000

16,929,000

9,499,000

154,261

827,000

3,980,000

1,336,000

124,299

185,000

23.51%

14.06%

80.58%

22.37%

0

0

0

-6,000

12,949,000

8,163,000

29,962

635,000

0

70,000

1,359

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

12,949,000

8,233,000

31,321

635,000

0

0

0

0

$12,949,000

$8,233,000

$31,321

$635,000

 

PERIOD ENDING - 12/31/08

AMGN

GENZ

BIIB

GILD

Assets

    

Current Assets

    

Cash And Cash Equivalents

1,774,000

572,106

622,385

1,459,302

Short Term Investments

7,778,000

57,507

779,023

330,760

Net Receivables

2,073,000

1,225,045

653,590

1,186,152

Inventory

2,075,000

453,437

263,602

927,868

Other Current Assets

1,521,000

208,040

139,400

396,199

Total Current Assets

15,221,000

2,516,135

2,458,000

4,300,281

Long Term Investments

0

427,403

1,126,558

1,449,577

Property Plant and Equipment

5,879,000

2,306,567

1,594,754

528,799

Goodwill

11,339,000

1,401,074

1,138,621

0

Intangible Assets

2,988,000

1,654,698

2,161,058

0

Accumulated Amortization

0

0

0

0

Other Assets

1,016,000

96,162

0

456,703

Deferred Long Term Asset Charges

0

269,237

0

283,214

Total Assets

36,443,000

8,671,276

8,478,991

7,018,574

Liabilities

    

Current Liabilities

    

Accounts Payable

3,886,000

893,255

865,564

1,172,398

Short/Current Long Term Debt

1,000,000

7,566

57,658

5,631

Other Current Liabilities

0

13,462

0

42,963

Total Current Liabilities

4,886,000

914,283

923,222

1,220,992

Long Term Debt

9,176,000

124,341

1,085,431

1,321,316

Other Liabilities

1,995,000

313,484

308,238

56,588

Deferred Long Term Liability Charges

0

13,175

356,017

74,181

Minority Interest

0

0

0

193,010

Negative Goodwill

0

0

0

0

Total Liabilities

16,057,000

1,365,283

2,672,908

2,866,087

Stockholders' Equity

    

Misc Stocks Options Warrants

0

0

0

0

Redeemable Preferred Stock

0

0

0

0

Preferred Stock

0

0

0

0

Common Stock

25,527,000

2,707

149

910

Retained Earnings

-5,258,000

1,247,796

270,180

382,874

Treasury Stock

0

0

-527,097

0

Capital Surplus

0

5,780,753

6,073,957

3,727,463

Other Stockholder Equity

117,000

274,737

-11,106

41,240

Total Stockholder Equity

20,386,000

7,305,993

5,806,083

4,152,487

Net Tangible Assets

$6,059,000

$4,250,221

$2,506,404

$4,152,487

Total Common Share Outstanding

1,070,000

271,350

288,000

910,000

Current Share Price (4/4/09)

46.57

56.04

50.32

46.98

Equity Value (Market Cap)

49,829,900

15,206,454

14,492,160

42,751,800

Enterprise Value

58,231,900

14,766,255

15,012,864

42,812,455

 


 

Book Value of Equity    20,386,000    7,305,993    5,806,083    4,152,487

 

JNJ

NVS

LIFE

TEVA

10,768,000

2,038,000

448,317

1,854,000

2,041,000

4,079,000

0

53,000

13,149,000

8,573,000

606,470

4,653,000

5,052,000

5,792,000

420,029

3,396,000

3,367,000

399,000

137,355

1,470,000

34,377,000

20,881,000

1,612,171

11,426,000

4,000

18,894,000

45,344

425,000

14,365,000

13,100,000

748,056

3,699,000

13,719,000

11,285,000

3,932,194

12,297,000

13,976,000

9,534,000

2,379,861

4,581,000

0

0

0

0

2,630,000

182,000

196,291

476,000

5,841,000

4,423,000

0

0

84,912,000

78,299,000

8,913,917

32,904,000

17,120,000

6,711,000

614,225

2,244,000

3,732,000

5,186,000

80,000

2,906,000

0

4,607,000

313,017

3,331,000

20,852,000

16,504,000

1,007,242

8,481,000

8,120,000

2,178,000

3,568,717

5,537,000

11,997,000

5,036,000

299,216

803,000

1,432,000

4,144,000

638,275

1,723,000

0

0

0

60,000

 

0

0

0

42,401,000

27,862,000

5,513,450

16,604,000

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

3,120,000

959,000

1,896

48,000

63,379,000

49,468,000

118,313

5,288,000

-19033000

-139000

-964420

-924000

0

0

4,343,485

11,498,000

-4955000

149,000

-98807

390,000

42,511,000

50,437,000

3,400,467

16,300,000

$14,816,000

$29,618,000

-2911588

-578000

2,770,000

2,260,000

173,800

888,720

52.15

37.51

32.56

44.4

144,455,500

84,772,600

5,658,928

39,459,168

145,539,500

90,098,600

8,859,328

46,108,168

 


 

42,511,000    50,437,000    3,400,467    16,300,000

 

PERIOD ENDING - 12/31/08

AMGN

GENZ

BIIB

Depreciation

1,073,000

374,664

462,059

 

GILD

JNJ

NVS

LIFE

TEVA

102,467

2,832,000

2,760,000

177,413

493,000

 

2008

2007

Revenues:

  

Product sales

14687

14311

Other revenues

316

460

Total revenues

15003

14771

Revenues Growth Rate

1.57%

3.53%

Operating expenses:

  

Cost of sales (excludes amortization of acquired intangible assets presented below)

2296

2548

Research and development

3030

3266

Selling, general and administrative

3789

3361

Amortization of acquired intangible assets

294

298

Write-off of acquired in-process research and development

590

Other charges

380

728

Total operating expenses

9789

10791

Operating income

5214

3980

EBIT Margin

0.34753049

0.26944689

NOPAT

4167.22743

3181.18657

NOA/Sales Rate

140%

148%

NOA (From Balance Sheet)

21010

21895

NOA Change

-885

-472

Other income (expense):

  

Interest and other income, net

352

309

Interest expense, net

-316

-328

Total other income (expense)

36

-19

Income before income taxes

5250

3961

Provision for income taxes

1054

795

Tax Rate

0.2007619

0.20070689

Net income

4196

3166

Earnings per share:

  

Basic

3.92

2.83

Diluted

3.9

2.82

Shares used in calculation of earnings per share:

  

Basic

1070

1117

Diluted

1075

1123

 

2006


 

13858


 

410


 

14268


 

14.79%


 

2095


 

3366


 

3366


 

370


 

1231


 



 

10428


 

3840


 

0.26913373


 

2817.91045


 

157%


 

22367


 


 

309 -129 180 4020 1070


 

0.26616915


 

2950


 

2.51


 

2.48


 

1176


 

1190

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